秋田浩之「強硬な中国変わらない」（『日本経済新聞』2021年3月27日）が英文でも配信されました。
As a top-priority issue, Japan needs to work closely with the U.S. and counter China in competition for hegemony in the maritime and high-technology fields, said University of Tokyo professor Shin Kawashima, a China expert. At the same time, Japan should not abandon efforts to play a possible role to prevent the Sino-American confrontation from developing into an armed conflict, Kawashima said.
“Sooner or later China will enter a phase where a hard-line policy alone will become difficult because its economic growth is slowing as a result of its dwindling birthrate and aging population,” he said. “That is why China is trying to rapidly attain the target. China’s policy of increasing military strength cannot be stopped but its schedule may be delayed. Japan should not abandon but continue efforts to have China ease its hard-line stance.”
For example, China examined a plan to establish an air defense identification zone in the South China Sea after it established one in the East China Sea during the Barack Obama administration in 2013, but has not carried out one in the South China Sea yet because of opposition from many countries.
In February, China passed a law to give its coast guard quasi-military powers, including the right to fire on foreign vessels. “If countries effectively impose pressure, a delay in the rigorous enforcement of the law is not impossible,” Kawashima said.
Hiroyuki Akita, “China will keep hard-line policy as Biden warns of steep competition,” NIKKEI ASIA, March 30, 2021.